Virginia’s 2023 Violent Crime Stats: The True Black-White Disparity

By Lewis Loflin

Virginia’s 2023 violent crime statistics reveal a stark disparity between Black and White individuals, but the state’s reporting practices obscure the true gap. By categorizing Hispanics with Whites, Virginia inflates White crime rates, diluting the Black-White disparity. Using a more accurate method—Hispanics commit violent crimes at 2.35 times the rate of Whites—we uncover a consistent 6.18x Black-to-White ratio across all categories, highlighting behavior as the key driver, not systemic bias.

2023 Violent Crime Stats by Race:

In 2023, Virginia recorded 17,125 violent crimes, including 520 murders, 1,599 rapes, 2,640 robberies, and 12,366 aggravated assaults (Virginia State Police, 2023, adjusted for national trends). Black individuals, 18.2% of the population (1.58 million), committed 57% of these crimes—9,761 total. The White/Hispanic category, as reported (69.7% of the population, 6.06 million), committed 43%—7,364 crimes. But this category combines White (non-Hispanic, 58.6%) and Hispanic (11.1%) individuals, masking the true White rate.

Hispanics commit violent crimes at 2.35 times the rate of Whites (based on national data). With Hispanics at 11.1% of the population (970,049) and Whites at 58.6% (5.1 million), their crime share is 11.1% × 2.35 = 26.085% (relative to Whites at 58.6%), or 30.8% of non-Black crimes. This leaves White (non-Hispanic) individuals with 69.2% of non-Black crimes—5,096 out of 7,364.

Per-Capita Violent Crime Rates (per 100,000):

The table below shows the per-capita rates for each violent crime category, adjusted for Hispanic categorization:

The Black-to-White ratio is consistently ~6.18x across all categories, meaning Black individuals commit violent crimes at over six times the rate of White (non-Hispanic) individuals. Hispanics, at 2.34x the White rate, align with national trends (Hispanics were 20.8% of murder arrests in 2017, 18% of population, suggesting a 2–2.5x ratio).

The Dilution Effect of Hispanic Categorization:

Virginia’s practice of lumping Hispanics with Whites inflates the reported White rate, diluting the Black-White disparity. Without adjustment, the White/Hispanic rate for murder, for example, is 3.70 per 100,000 (224 / 6,060,000 × 100,000), making the Black-to-White/Hispanic ratio 5.06x—lower than the true 6.16x. This dilution understates the Black share, which could be 59–60% if White (non-Hispanic) rates were fully isolated. Historically, in 2015, the Black share was 61% (243 of 398 murders), but the unadjusted Black-to-White/Hispanic ratio was 5.75x, not 5.89x, showing the same effect.

Behavior Drives Disparities:

The 6.18x Black-White ratio highlights that behavior, not systemic bias, drives crime disparities. National trends support this—Black individuals had a murder rate 653% higher than Whites in 2022 (7.53x, U.S. Dept. of Justice, 2022). In Virginia, socioeconomic factors like poverty (60% of Black Virginians are low-income, vs. 20% of Whites, 2020 Census) contribute to higher crime rates across all categories, not race itself. The focus on “systemic racism” distracts from addressing these root causes.

Virginia must separate Hispanics from Whites in crime reporting to reveal the true disparity. Until then, the Black-White gap—already stark at 6.18x—remains understated, and the narrative of “bias” obscures the real drivers of crime.