Compiled by Lewis Loflin
Published: April 3, 2025
According to my local sheriff in the Appalachia region, approximately 90 percent of crime in this area is related to drug and alcohol abuse. This includes activities ranging from home meth labs to outside gangs from large urban areas coming into the region to supply the demand. Note: This claim is based on anecdotal evidence from the sheriff and lacks recent corroboration; updated data is needed to confirm this trend.
There are few options for treatment, with many communities actively resisting the establishment of drug and alcohol abuse treatment centers. This resistance hinders efforts to address the root causes of crime, leaving little hope for a solution in the near future. Note: This observation reflects historical community attitudes and may not represent current policies or efforts in 2025.
Despite the prevalence of drug-related crime, most arrests in Appalachia involve White individuals, and the region experiences relatively little violent crime or gang shootings compared to urban areas.
The Virginia State Police Crime in Virginia 2022 report provides the most recent comprehensive data on crime in the state. The violent crime rate increased to 203 per 100,000 population in 2022, up 4.9% from 194.4 in 2021. This translates to 17,655 violent crime offenses reported in 2022, compared to 16,823 in 2021.
Key statistics include:
Demographic Data: Specific arrest demographics by race for Virginia in 2022 are not available in the sources. However, national FBI UCR data from 2019 indicates that 69.4% of all individuals arrested were White, 26.6% were Black or African American, and 4.0% were of other races. For juveniles arrested for drug abuse violations, 74.8% were White. Importantly, in Virginia crime statistics, the White category often includes Hispanic individuals, as ethnicity is not always disaggregated. Nationally, 19.1% of arrestees in 2019 were Hispanic or Latino, suggesting that a portion of Virginia’s “White” arrests may include Hispanic individuals. For a detailed breakdown of Hispanic arrests in Virginia, see this earlier article.
Recent state-specific crime data for New Jersey is limited, but national trends from the FBI’s 2023 Crime in the Nation Statistics and 2024 Quarterly Crime Report (Q1) provide insight. Nationally, violent crime decreased by 3.0% in 2023 compared to 2022, with further declines in early 2024: a 15.2% decrease in violent crime for January–March 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
National trends likely influencing New Jersey include:
Demographic Data: National FBI UCR data from 2019 shows that 69.4% of all individuals arrested were White, 26.6% were Black or African American, and 19.1% of arrestees (where ethnicity was reported) were Hispanic or Latino. For juveniles, 62.5% of those arrested were White, 33.9% were Black or African American. Unlike Virginia, New Jersey’s historical data (see below) often separated Hispanic ethnicity from race, providing a clearer demographic breakdown. Recent New Jersey data lacks this granularity.
Drug-Related Crime: The Council on Criminal Justice 2024 Year-End Update reports a 3% decrease in drug offenses in 2024 compared to 2023, and a 28% decrease from 2019 levels across 24 U.S. cities. Specific data for New Jersey is unavailable, but this trend suggests a decline in drug-related crime that may apply to the state.
Impact of Progressive Policies: New Jersey, a Democrat-controlled state, has implemented progressive criminal justice reforms, such as bail reform (2017) and marijuana decriminalization (2021). Progressive prosecutors in cities like Newark often divert non-violent offenders to treatment programs rather than prosecution. These policies can lower reported crime rates by 20–30%, as low-level crimes (e.g., drug possession, petty theft) may not be recorded if they don’t result in arrests. Combined with underreporting due to community distrust (only 48% of violent crimes are reported, per the National Crime Victimization Survey), the actual crime rate by minorities in New Jersey could be 30–45% higher than reported.
National crime statistics are significantly distorted by underreporting and plea bargaining, particularly in urban areas with high minority populations, hiding the true extent of crime by Black and Hispanic individuals, as highlighted in the historical data below (e.g., 85% of robbery arrests in New Jersey in 2009 were non-White).
Underreporting in Urban Crime Zones: The FBI’s 2024 Q1 data covers only 77% of the U.S. population, meaning 23%—approximately 76 million people—are not represented in national crime statistics. While major cities like New York (population 8.4 million) and Chicago (population 2.7 million) now report data, smaller urban zones in states with low reporting rates (e.g., Florida at 44% in 2022) do not. Urban areas like Miami, Tampa, and Orlando (totaling about 1.5 million people) and others like Nashville (population 690,000) contribute an estimated 5–7 million people to this gap. This represents 7–9% of the unreported population, or roughly one-third to one-half of the 23% gap in population terms.
Urban areas have higher violent crime rates (2–3 times the national average of 380 per 100,000 in 2023). If 5 million people in these unreported urban zones experience a violent crime rate of 1,000 per 100,000, this could mean 50,000 unreported violent crimes, disproportionately affecting minority communities where crime is concentrated.
Plea Bargaining and Felony Reduction: Plea bargaining further distorts crime statistics by reducing felonies to misdemeanors. Nationally, 90–95% of criminal cases are resolved through plea bargains, and studies estimate that 25–40% of felonies are pleaded down to lesser charges, especially in urban areas with overburdened courts. In 2023, the FBI reported 1,140,931 violent crimes. If 25% of these were initially felonies but pleaded down to misdemeanors, that’s approximately 285,000 violent crimes underreported as felonies. In Democrat-controlled states like New Jersey, where progressive prosecutors prioritize diversion, this rate may be closer to 40%, further understating the felony rate by minorities.
Impact on National Statistics: The combination of underreporting (23% of the population unrepresented), plea bargaining (25–40% of felonies reduced), and progressive policies in states like New Jersey (reducing reported crimes by 20–30%) renders national crime statistics nearly unreliable. The actual crime rate, particularly in minority-heavy urban areas, could be significantly higher than reported, hiding the true extent of violent crime by Black and Hispanic individuals, as seen in the historical data below.
The following data reflects crime statistics and demographic breakdowns from 2009 (New Jersey) and 2015 (Virginia), as originally compiled. This section preserves the historical context for comparison with updated figures.
The Uniform Crime Report for New Jersey (2009) shows that every 24 hours, there were 1 murder, 3 rapes, 32 robberies, and 39 aggravated assaults. Non-White individuals accounted for a significant portion of violent crime arrests.
Murder: There were 320 murders in 2009, with 229 persons arrested. Of those arrested, 72% were Black, 16% Hispanic, 11% White. Of the victims, 65% were Black, and 31.9% were White or Hispanic. Cross-racial murders were nearly 100% Black-on-White.
Rape: There were 1,041 reported rapes in 2009, with 365 persons arrested. Of those arrested, 38% were Black, 36% White, and 30% Hispanic. The race of victims was not provided. Non-Whites accounted for 68% of rapists.
A 2003 study by Dean G. Kilpatrick, Ph.D., and Kenneth J. Ruggiero, Ph.D., notes:
Racial/ethnic background also was related to whether a woman reported having ever been raped. For example, less than 6% of Asian American women were raped at least once during their life, whereas nearly 24% of Native American women have been raped...
Most rapes are intra-racial, particularly among minority women, due to proximity to high-crime areas. In interracial rapes, White women were often victims of non-White perpetrators, while Asian/White rape of Black/Hispanic individuals was statistically negligible.
Carjackings: Of 268 victims, 22% (60) were aged 20–24, 75% (202) were male, and 51% (137) were Black. Of 452 offenders, 36% (164) lacked sufficient data. Of known offenders (288), 61% (177) were aged 20–24, 98% (283) were male, and 86% (248) were Black.
Robbery: There were 11,637 robbery offenses in 2009, with 4,423 persons arrested. Of those arrested, 63% were Black, 20% Hispanic, 15% White, and 1% other—85% were non-White.
Aggravated Assault: There were 14,110 reported aggravated assaults in 2009, with 8,814 arrests. Of those arrested, 45% were Black, 29% White, 24% Hispanic, and 2% other—71% were non-White.
Burglary: There were 36,928 reported burglary offenses in 2009, with 6,177 arrests. Of those arrested, 48% were White, 34% Black, and 17% Hispanic.
The Sentencing Project (2007) notes that New Jersey had a White incarceration rate of 190 per 100,000 people, compared to 2,362 per 100,000 for Blacks and 630 per 100,000 for Hispanics.
In summary, most violent crime in New Jersey in 2009 was committed by non-White individuals, with the proportion of non-White offenders increasing with the severity of the crime.
Summary of Virginia crime for 2015: Black males, approximately 10% of the population, committed over half of all violent crimes, including the majority of murders, three-fourths of robberies, over half of assaults, and nearly half of burglaries. Note: In Virginia, the White category in crime statistics often includes Hispanic individuals, as ethnicity is not always disaggregated.
The following links document incidents of racial violence, including White victims of Black violence, female victims of Black violence, and Black-on-Black crime. These incidents highlight concerns about underreporting and lack of hate crime charges in some cases.
White Victims of Black Violence (No Hate Crime Charges)
Female Victims of Black Violence
Violent Black-on-Black Crime
Additional Incidents and Context
In Norfolk, the press allegedly covered up a violent racial attack on their own reporters, with police response criticized as inadequate. In Washington, D.C., a man was nearly killed for asking a Black male not to litter in front of his apartment. Reported murder victims include a Black child, a teenage White girl, a pizza shop worker, and a man beaten nearly to death by a Black gang. Black-on-Black violence has also been reported in Bristol, Virginia.
The goal of highlighting these incidents is not to deride any group but to encourage the press to report facts transparently so that underlying issues can be addressed.
The following links provide further context on crime in Virginia, including drug-related incidents and arrests, many of which involve Black individuals.
