The Ages of Gaia and science facts they won't talk about.

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The Ages of Gaia and science facts they won't talk about

The Role of Clouds in Climate

From http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/intro/rossow_01/role.html

Thus it is ironic that when it comes to forecasting the climate several decades ahead, clouds mainly obscure our vision. Their most important role in climate is to modulate Earth's basic radiation balance: the law of conservation of energy requires that the energy absorbed from the sun balance the energy radiated back into space. Cloud both reflect incoming sunlight and inhibit the radiation of heat from the surface, thereby profoundly affecting both sides of the global energy equation. Clouds would modify any changes in climate as well. The trouble is that the complex ways clouds can respond to other physical variables make it hard to determine their net effect on the radiation balance. Although satellites make it possible to measure the global interactions of clouds and radiation, investigators have only recently shifted attention to the problem.

What makes it so important to disentangle the interactions of clouds and climate? The balance between absorbed solar radiation and emitted heat radiation sets the temperature of Earth. For example, when heat radiation slows, the balance can be maintained only if Earth's temperature rises.

Comment: This article fails to mention that water condensation (rain) radiates heat into space. Thus clouds have a great cooling effect as well. Thus more heat, more water evaporation, more rain, more heat radiated back to space. The water cycle is the main heat regulator in earth regardless of CO₂ claims. But...

And from http://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/postsecondary/features/tropics_feature.html

Possibly no part of the climate system is more unpredictable than the interaction between atmospheric water and radiation emitted by the Sun and the Earth. At any given time, a small sea of water floats above our heads in the form of clouds, ice, and water vapor. The form and position the water takes in the sky changes the way it interacts with solar and thermal radiation. Clouds, especially low-lying, thick clouds, reflect an enormous amount of sunlight back into space and keep it from overheating the Earth. High-flying, wispy clouds and water vapor absorb greater amounts of outgoing thermal (heat) radiation, which is generated by the surface of the Earth after it is warmed by the Sun. Along with greenhouse gases, such clouds and water vapor contribute to keeping the average temperature of the Earth's surface from dropping to Arctic levels year round.

Due to its delicate interplay with energy, atmospheric water has tremendous potential to impact the Earth's climate and temperature. For years, researchers have been attempting to pin down the complex interactions involved. Specifically, they?d like to know in what way clouds and water vapor might shift if the surface of our planet were to warm further due to elevated levels of human-generated greenhouse gases. In attempts to forecast possible future scenarios, scientists have created numerous computer models to simulate the interactions between clouds and radiation. Particular attention has been given to the tropics because more sunlight hits these latitudes than anywhere else. Resulting theories and model results have run the gamut. Some researchers profess that in the future, thick, low-lying clouds will decrease and high-flying cirrus clouds will increase, making global warming much worse.

Others espouse theories, such as the Iris Hypothesis, which state that as the Earth's surface heats up, cirrus clouds will dissipate and allow more thermal energy to vent into space, countering the effects of global warming.

The problem, however, is that relatively little real-world data have been collected to test these theories or even to build exacting computer models. Since clouds are constantly shifting, separating, growing, and shrinking, the only way to study them and their effects on radiation has been through the use of remote sensing instruments and weather satellites. Such instruments have been around for about 25 years. Only recently have scientists acquired enough data to put together any meaningful conclusions.

Last year, a group of researchers led by Bruce Wielicki and Tak Wong, climate scientists at NASA's Langley Research Center, compiled a couple decades worth of radiation data from the tropics. While the researchers approached the data with the idea of testing existing notions, they witnessed a phenomenon no one expected. Over the past 15 years, progressively more thermal radiation has been escaping the atmosphere above the tropics and progressively less sunlight has been reflecting off of the clouds. Though researchers now believe that wind currents throughout the tropics have been fluctuating and altering clouds and radiation patterns, the discovery has brought many theories and climate models into question.

Comment: It means all their computer models never work.

About OZONE

Molecular oxygen in the stratosphere is broken into a pair of oxygen radicals by light with a wavelength of 240 nanometers or less. If one of these O radicals encounters an oxygen molecule, it can bond to produce ozone. This reaction is only stable if another molecule is present to absorb the excess energy released as the oxygen radical and molecule bond. This is a called a three body reaction, and the third body exhibits its removal of the excess energy by whizzing off at a higher energy and thereby increasing the temperature of the atmosphere where this reaction occurs. [Environmental Science and Technology; v.25; p.1884; 1991.]

Source: Atmospheric Chemistry Glossary

Note that it isn't ozone that protects us from UV, it's oxygen that protects us and ozone is a byproduct that is supposed to break down.

The Effects of Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide on the Ozone Layer

Kara Huff

From http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gcp/studentpapers/1996/atmoschem/huff.html

In January 1993, the Earth's average stratospheric ozone concentration was the lowest on record. Although the ozone layer has since recovered, the cause of this reduction has interested and concerned scientists. Recently, this ozone event has been linked to the June 1991 eruption of the Philippine volcano Mount Pinatubo.1 One of the major atmospheric effects of this eruption was the addition of 15-30 MT sulfur dioxide (SO₂). This excess SO₂ has been linked to the abnormally low ozone levels. However, the actual ozone depletion was less than scientists expected for this amount of SO₂. In this paper, this phenomena will be explained. To explain this, the three major effects of SO₂ on the ozone layer will be discussed. Then, the results of two studies will be reported: short-term (one to two months after eruption) computer modeling and long-term (three to seven months after eruption) computer modeling.

It is known that during the first two months after an eruption, SO₂ affects the ozone layer both positively and negatively. SO₂ depletes the ozone layer by reducing the solar flux because it absorbs 180 nm-390 nm. This is the same range for the photolysis of O₂, which is necessary for ozone production. Since photolysis is reduced, ozone production is also reduced.

SO₂ also increases stratospheric ozone concentrations, as illustrated by the following equations. In this SO₂, by reaction with ultraviolet light, produces an ozone precursor (O). Effectively, SO₂ catalyzes the formation of ozone.

SO₂ + hv = SO + O (wavelength<220nm)

SO + O₂ = SO₂ + O

2(O + O₂ + M = O₃ + M)

3O₂ = 2O₃

In short-term computer modeling study, it was found that immediately after the eruption, at an altitude of 25 km, no ozone depletion takes place. The photolysis reduction effect and the catalyzing effect cancel each other out. Immediately below the cloud, though, ozone is reduced because of the reduced photolysis of O₂ (due to absorption by SO₂).

However, after two months, most SO₂ is converted to sulfuric acid by reaction with hydroxyl radicals (OH). This condenses into aerosols in the atmosphere. This is known as the aerosol effect. Nitrogen oxides (NO_x =NO, NO₂, NO₃, and N₂O₅) react with the surface of the aerosols to form nitric acid (HNO₃). Normally, NO_x reacts with ozone-depleting Cl and ClO to form less ozone-depleting compounds. However, because the sulfuric acid aerosol removes NO_x, the ozone layer becomes more sensitive to Cl and ClO. In this case, the ozone concentration decreases.

This long-term situation was verified using three computer models. First, a situation was studied three months after the eruption, assuming the SO₂ cloud was confined to the tropics. It was also assumed that SO₂ acted as a greenhouse gas and caused slight stratospheric heating. In this case, it was found that the concentration of ozone-depleting radicals increased by 25-50% at 20 km. Second, the same situation was studied without heating. In this case, NO₂ was decreased by 40% and ClO was increased by a factor of 2.3. Lastly, this was studied seven months after eruption, assuming that the cloud was evenly dispersed over the Earth. In this case, NO₂ concentration was reduced by 30-35% at 20-25 km.

As shown, SO₂ has been found to not change ozone concentration at 25 km in the first two months after a volcanic eruption. Then, in all three long-term computer modeling studies, the ozone concentration decreases, due to the aerosol effect. These facts agree well with the stratospheric ozone data collected. For this reason, a mechanism to explain the effect of volcanic SO₂ on the ozone layer has been found.

Comment: Weather conditions, heat, volcanoes, solar output, etc. effect ozone levels. They do not affect oxygen levels that produce ozone, which is what protects us from harmful UV.

Types of volcanic gases

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/Hazards/What/VolGas/volgas.html

The most abundant gas typically released into the atmosphere from volcanic systems is water vapor (H₂0), followed by carbon dioxide (C0₂) and sulfur dioxide (S0₂). Volcanoes also release smaller amounts of others gases, including hydrogen sulfide (H₂S), hydrogen (H₂), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen chloride (HCL), hydrogen fluoride (HF), and helium (He).

Examples of volcanic gas compositions, in volume percent concentrations
(from Symonds et. al., 1994)

Volcano Tectonic Style Temperature	Kilauea Summit Hot Spot 1170°C	Erta` Ale Divergent Plate 1130°C	Momotombo Convergent Plate 820°C
H₂0	37.1	77.2	97.1
C0₂	48.9	11.3	1.44
S0₂	11.8	8.34	0.50
H₂	0.49	1.39	0.70
CO	1.51	0.44	0.01
H₂S	0.04	0.68	0.23
HCl	0.08	0.42	2.89
HF	---	---	0.26

Consider that sulfer dioxide the Iceland eruptions threw out at 122 million tons being only 10% of the total volume of gas.

Volcano 'drove up UK death toll'

From http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3745749.stm

By Paul Rincon BBC News Online science staff

Volcanic eruptions in Iceland probably caused an unusual rise in deaths in England during the summer of 1783. The eruptions at the Laki Craters began on 8 June, 1783, and continued for eight months.

An estimated 122 megatonnes of sulphur dioxide was released, along with smaller amounts of other gases, from explosive fissures and vents and from lava flows. A thick, hot vapour had for several days before filled up the valley...so that both the Sun and Moon appeared like heated brick-bars Gentleman's Magazine, July 1783 In Iceland alone, some 9,000 people - about a quarter of the population - were killed. But the massive discharge from beneath the Earth also fumigated many parts of Europe with volcanic gases and airborne particles.

Contemporary reports from across Europe mention the periodical presence of an atmospheric haze in summer and autumn 1783, linked by several lines of evidence to the pollutant cloud produced by the Laki eruptions.

Dr Steve Blake, a volcanologist at the Open University in Milton Keynes, told BBC News Online: "Both [temperature and emissions] must have had some influence. But off the top of my head, I'm not sure whether you can unpick those and say which one is critical."

But he agreed the pollutant cloud produced by the Laki eruptions could very well have caused environmental damage and ill-health in many parts of Europe. Other researchers have also argued that the extremely hot summer of 1783 and the particularly cold winter of 1783/4 could have been caused by the volcanic eruptions at Laki.

The products of volcanism are known to have effects on climate. But the Cambridge researchers suggest other, unrelated, factors could equally have been to blame for these temperature extremes. The Icelandic death toll was due mainly to a famine that took hold after most of the island's sheep were killed by eating grass contaminated with fluorine from the eruptions.

Volcanoes and Global Cooling

From: http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/gsfc/service/gallery/fact_sheets/earthsci/volcano.htm

Volcanic eruptions are thought to be responsible for the global cooling that has been observed for a few years after a major eruption. The amount and global extent of the cooling depend on the force of the eruption and, possibly, its latitude. When large masses of gases from the eruption reach the stratosphere, they can produce a large, widespread cooling effect. As a prime example, the effects of Mount Pinatubo, which erupted in June 1991, may have lasted a few years, serving to offset temporarily the predicted greenhouse effect.

As volcanoes erupt, they blast huge clouds into the atmosphere. These clouds are made up of particles and gases, including sulfur dioxide. Millions of tons of sulfur dioxide gas can reach the stratosphere from a major volcano. There, the sulfur dioxide converts to tiny persistent sulfuric acid (sulfate) particles, referred to as aerosols. These sulfate particles reflect energy coming from the sun, thereby preventing the sun's rays from heating the Earth.

Global cooling often has been linked with major volcanic eruptions. The year 1816 often has been referred to as "the year without a summer." It was a time of significant weather-related disruptions in New England and in Western Europe with killing summer frosts in the United States and Canada. These strange phenomena were attributed to a major eruption of the Tambora volcano in 1815 in Indonesia. The volcano threw sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere, and the aerosol layer that formed led to brilliant sunsets seen around the world for several years.

However, there is some confusion about the historical evidence that global cooling may be caused by volcanic emissions. Two recent volcanic eruptions have provided contradictory evidence on this point. Mount Agung in 1963 apparently caused a considerable decrease in temperatures around much of the world, whereas El Chichn in 1982 seemed to have little effect, perhaps because of its different location or because of the El Nino that occurred the same year. El Nino is a Pacific Ocean phenomenon, but it causes worldwide weather variations that may have acted to cancel out the effect of the El Chichn eruption.

Volcanoes and Ozone Depletion

Another possible effect of a volcanic eruption is the destruction of stratospheric ozone. Researchers now are suggesting that ice particles containing sulfuric acid from volcanic emissions may contribute to ozone loss. When chlorine compounds resulting from the breakup of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the stratosphere are present, the sulfate particles may serve to convert them into more active forms that may cause more rapid ozone depletion.

Monitoring the Effects of Volcanoes

Even if one can get to a volcano, it's practically impossible to measure its gas output because one can't synoptically see the whole cloud. Even aircraft can't do it because they're too low and it's too dangerous.

(cut) Observations of the effects of Mt. Pinatubo aerosols on global climate have been used to validate scientist's understanding of climate change and our ability to predict future climate. Researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City have applied their general circulation model of Earth's climate to the problem. They have reported success in correctly predicting the effects of the sulfate aerosols from Mount Pinatubo's eruption on lowering global temperatures.

Mount Tambora

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Mount Tambora (Tomboro) is a volcano on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa, nearly in a right line to the eastward of Java. The volcano of Tambora suffered the most violent eruption in modern times. Beginning in early April 1815 and continuing till the middle of July 1815, its immediate explosion effects were felt over an immense area, embracing the Maluku Islands (Molucca Islands), Java, and portions of Sulawesi (Celebes), Sumatra, and Borneo.

The most violent eruption in recorded history

The mountain blew its top off on April 12, by most accounts, with the most violence between April 10 and April 15. The explosion, of Volcanic Explosivity Index 6-7, ejected an estimated 100 cubic km of rock, weighing approximately 2-3 × 1014 kg. This left a caldera 7km across. Before the explosion, Mount Tambora was about 4000m high; it is now only 2851m high.

Tambora was not however the most violent volcanic eruption of all time. The eruption of Thira (Santorini) in Greece in about 1650 BC was greater, but no accounts of the explosion survive, possibly because of the destruction it caused to nearby civilisations. A similar-sized eruption of Toba roughly 75,000 years ago has been theorized to have reduced the worldwide population of mankind (Homo erectus and Homo neanderthalensis) at the time to just a few thousand individuals, though definite evidence is lacking. One of the greatest known eruptions was of supervolcano Yellowstone about 2,000,000 years ago, an event which almost certainly caused an extended period of volcanic winter with far-reaching effects. Even greater undiscovered cataclysmic eruptions have certainly occurred in the Earth's 4.7 thousand million year history.

Death toll: All vegetation on several nearby islands died. All in all, about 92,000 people died as a direct consequence of this disaster, the largest volcanic eruption in recorded history. About that many more died worldwide as a result of starvation and disease.

Year Without a Summer

Wikipedia

The "Year Without A Summer" occurred in 1816, after the April 5-April 15, 1815 volcanic eruptions of Mount Tambora on the island of Sumbawa in the Dutch East Indies (in today's Indonesia) ejected over a million and a half tons of dust into the upper atmosphere. The dust blocked some sunlight from reaching the ground over the northern hemisphere, reducing temperatures significantly.

New Englanders and eastern Canadians were hit the hardest. In May of 1816 frost killed off much of the crops that had been planted, and in June two large snowstorms resulted in many human deaths as well. In July and August, ice formed on some lakes in Canada. Even though farmers south of New England did succeed in bringing some crops to maturity, maize (corn) and other grain prices rose dramatically. Oats, for example, rose from 12 cents a bushel the previous year to 92 cents a bushel.

Many historians cite the year without a summer, sometimes called eighteen hundred and froze to death, as a primary motivation for the rapid settlement of what is now the American Midwest. Many New Englanders were wiped out by the year, and tens of thousands struck out for the richer soil and better growing conditions of the Upper Midwest.

Europe, still recuperating from the Napoleonic Wars, suffered from food shortages. Food riots broke out in Britain and France and grain warehouses were looted. The violence was worst in landlocked Switzerland, where famine caused the government to declare a national emergency.

American climatologist William Humphreys eventually determined the cause of the year without summer in 1920, after reading a treatise written by Ben Franklin in 1783 blaming the unusually cool summer of that year on volcanic dust coming from Iceland. A comparable episode happened earlier in the 6th century, see climate changes of 535-536.

External links

Climate changes of 535-536

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

In the years 535 and 536, several remarkable aberrations in world climate took place. The following were reported by a number of independent contemporary sources:

low temperatures, even snow during the summer
dark clouds, only few hours of sunlight during the day
floods in formerly dry regions
crop failures

It has been conjectured that these changes were due to ashes or dust thrown into the air after the impact of a comet or meteorite, or after the eruption of a volcano. A similar episode had been observed in 1816, the Year Without A Summer.

In a 1999 book, David Keys, supported by work of the American volcanologist Ken Wohletz, suggested that the Indonesian volcano Krakatoa exploded at the time and caused the changes. He further speculated that the climate changes may have contributed to various important developments, such as the emergence of bubonic plague, the migration of Mongolian tribes towards the West, the end of the Persian empire, the rise of Islam and the end of various civilizations in Central and South America. These ideas are not widely accepted at this point.