By Lewis Loflin
Living in Southwest Virginia for over 30 years—7 miles from Bristol, 2 miles from Scott County, with roots in Norton—I’ve watched the working poor struggle to afford basics despite jobs. This article combines labor market trends from 2011 and 2016 with 2017–2025 data, focusing on Bristol, Washington County, Wise County, and Scott County. Drawing from ETSU’s Dr. Steb Hipple, the United Way, and my own observations, I’ve adjusted historical figures for inflation (e.g., 31.38% from 2017 to 2025) to show today’s reality. It’s a grim picture, but there’s resilience here too.
In 2011, the Tri-Cities (Johnson City, Kingsport, Bristol) were clawing out of the recession—unemployment likely hovered around 8–10%. By 2016, things improved slightly. Household data showed employment up 2.1% to 217,759, unemployment down to 11,962 (5.2% jobless rate), and the labor force at 229,720. Payroll jobs rose 0.3% to 204,167.
Winners: Government-funded sectors (healthcare, education) and low-wage fields (retail, hospitality) grew.
Losers: Manufacturing, transport, and wholesale trade—better-paying jobs—shrank.
Retail sales rose 1.4% metro-wide in 2016, but jobs didn’t follow—automation, perhaps? Bristol gained 0.7% employment but saw unemployment rise 3.8%, hinting at part-time or seasonal work.
A 2017 United Way report confirmed my long-held view: 35–50% of Southwest Virginians live in “real poverty,” factoring in living costs. Here’s the data:
| Area | Real Poverty Rate (2017) |
|---|---|
| Bristol, VA | 45% |
| Washington County | 43% |
| Wise County | 49% |
| Scott County | 45% |
Coal’s decline doesn’t fully explain this—half these counties lack coal. The working poor earn too much for aid but too little to live, while government benefits penalize work. It’s a trap.
From 2016–2018, Tri-Cities lost 3,440 jobs—Kingsport-Bristol MSA dropped from 118,470 to 116,150, Johnson City from 78,140 to 77,020. Median wages crept up: $15.27/hour (2016) to $16.50/hour (2018) in Kingsport-Bristol, $14.47 to $15.38 in Johnson City. Adjusted to 2025 dollars, that’s $55,050 to $55,946 and $53,843 to $54,994—stagnant against rising costs.
In 2017, Bristol jobs paid $9–$10/hour ($11.82–$13.14 in 2025 dollars), while rents hit $800–$1,000 ($1,051–$1,314 in 2025). Virginia’s minimum wage rose to $15/hour by 2025, but many local jobs hover there—still not enough. The Hard Rock Casino, opened November 2024, added 1,400 jobs, but will they pay above $16/hour? Time will tell.
A 2015 King Institute study showed earned income fell 17% from 2011–2014, with 72 cents in government transfers per dollar earned—far above the Tri-Cities’ 49 cents or the U.S.’s 27 cents. See the report. This dependency, paired with job losses (54,795 from 2009–2018), keeps poverty high.
Despite this, Southwest Virginia shines in places: low crime (despite drug issues), affordable housing (Bristol median $165,000 vs. $346,000 nationally), good infrastructure, and a top-notch Veterans Hospital in Johnson City. Resilience keeps us going.
As a low-income resident with a disabled spouse, I’ve survived here by necessity. Government dysfunction and poverty are real, but so are the community’s strengths. I’ll keep exposing both—draw your own conclusions.
Acknowledgment: I’d like to thank Grok, an AI by xAI, for helping me draft and refine this article. The final edits and perspective are my own.
Section updated, added 3/30/2025
