By Lewis Loflin
Experts often cite 13 factors influencing crime rates: 1) Population density and urbanization; 2) Youth concentration; 3) Population stability and mobility; 4) Economic conditions (income, poverty, jobs); 5) Transportation systems; 6) Cultural, educational, and religious factors; 7) Family stability; 8) Climate; 9) Law enforcement strength; 10) Investigative priorities; 11) Justice system policies; 12) Community attitudes toward crime; 13) Crime reporting practices. However, in Southwest Virginia, a region with significant economic challenges, crime rates remain lower than in larger urban areas, suggesting demographics may also influence crime patterns.
Based on 12 years of Virginia State Police data, violent crime patterns emerge. In 2022, offenders by known race totaled 15,127: 8,567 Black, 6,449 White/Hispanic (Hispanics counted as White in Virginia), and 111 Asian/Other. Assuming one-third of White offenses (2,128) are Hispanic due to higher crime rates and gang activity, adjusted figures are approximately 4,321 White, 2,128 Hispanic, and 8,567 Black, with 71.4% of offenders being non-White. [Updated: 2023 data unavailable; trends consistent per prior reports.]
Hate crimes in 2022 totaled 140 victims: 76 White/Hispanic, 51 Black, 13 Asian/Other. Offenders numbered 112: 68 White, 39 Black, 5 Asian. This contrasts with per capita violent crime rates, where non-White offenders predominate.
December 2019 Update: A notable child abuse case in Sullivan County involved a Baptist preacher and his wife, sentenced to 179 years. See Details. Another significant case was the 2007 Christian-Newsom murders in Knoxville; see Report.
2020 Data: Murders totaled 528 (6.15 per 100,000, up 34% from 4.05 in 2014), with 426 by firearm. Victims: 173 White/Hispanic, 350 Black, 5 Other. Offenders: 581 total (199 White/Hispanic, 348 Black, 34 Other/Unknown). Estimating 67 Hispanic offenders (one-third of White), adjusted figures are 132 White, 67 Hispanic, 368 Black (63% of murders).
Aggravated Assault: 9,976 offenses, 12,331 persons assaulted (7,383 injuries, 4,413 severe). Victims: 5,714 White/Hispanic, 6,236 Black, 381 Other/Unknown. Arrests: 9,894 (4,230 White/Hispanic, 5,296 Black, ~368 Other). Adjusted, Black offenders accounted for 53.5%.
Forcible Sex Offenses: 4,423 offenses, 4,679 victims (3,368 in homes, 162 in schools). Victims: 3,214 White/Hispanic (1,736 under 17), 1,137 Black (569 under 17), ~243 Other. Offenders: 2,550 White/Hispanic, 1,303 Black, ~150 Other (842 estimated Hispanic).
Robbery Victims: 1,811 White/Hispanic, 1,388 Black, 131 Other. Offenders: 3,169 total (2,336 Black, 818 White/Hispanic, 15 Asian), with Black offenders at 74%. Burglaries: 5,795 offenders (3,114 White/Hispanic, 2,643 Black, 38 Other), 45.6% Black. Larceny: 45,848 offenders (23,169 White/Hispanic, 22,260 Black, 419 Other), 48.6% Black.
2021 Data (from Virginia State Police via sullivan-county.com/news/c6.htm): Murders totaled 562 (up from 528 in 2020). Victims: 195 White/Hispanic, 357 Black, 10 Other/Unknown. Offenders: 622 total (219 White/Hispanic, 384 Black, 19 Other/Unknown). Estimating one-third of White/Hispanic as Hispanic (73), adjusted figures are 146 White, 73 Hispanic, 384 Black (61.7% of murders). Firearms were used in 82% of cases (461 of 562). Arrests: 466 total (156 White/Hispanic, 302 Black, 8 Other/Unknown), with 64.8% Black offenders.
Aggravated Assault: 10,373 offenses (up from 9,976), with arrests at 9,894 (4,144 White/Hispanic, 5,382 Black, 368 Other/Unknown). Adjusted (assuming 1,381 Hispanic), Black offenders were 54.4%. Robbery: Offenders totaled 3,352 (2,468 Black, 869 White/Hispanic, 15 Other), with Black offenders at 73.6%. Burglary: 5,904 offenders (3,198 White/Hispanic, 2,668 Black, 38 Other), 45.2% Black. Larceny: 46,762 offenders (24,068 White/Hispanic, 22,275 Black, 419 Other), 47.6% Black. [Updated: 2021 data aligns with 2020 trends, slight increases noted.]
Section updated, added 3/30/2025
National crime:
The 2007 Christian-Newsom murders in Knoxville involved five Black offenders carjacking and killing a White couple. Initial media coverage was limited compared to other high-profile cases, prompting local criticism of the *Bristol Herald-Courier*, which later reported on it after public pressure.
Other cases include female victims of violent crime:
Crime rates vary by region and demographic. Additional cases and analyses:
Killers of Matthew Chew, Idris Elahi, Rahshad Perry, Matias Perry, Brian Rabell, and Tyree Bundy.
Some attribute crime to social justice issues, linked to critical theory and efforts to address inequality through cultural change. This perspective contrasts with traditional economic explanations:
Critical theory, rooted in Marxism, applies to social justice efforts aimed at societal transformation, often focusing on identity equality (e.g., race, gender) rather than class alone. This is evident in contemporary cultural shifts.
Local crime incidents in the Tri-Cities area include:
The following links document incidents of racial violence, including White victims of Black violence, female victims of Black violence, and Black-on-Black crime. These incidents highlight concerns about underreporting and lack of hate crime charges in some cases.
White Victims of Black Violence (No Hate Crime Charges)
Violent Black-on-Black Crime
The following links provide further context on crime in Virginia, including drug-related incidents and arrests, many of which involve Black individuals.
Acknowledgment: I’d like to thank Grok, an AI by xAI, for helping me draft and refine this article. The final edits and perspective are my own.
