By Lewis Loflin
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) contributes to global warming, with current levels at 420 parts per million (ppm) associated with a 1.2°C temperature increase since 1850. However, geological records indicate that significantly higher CO₂ concentrations in Earth’s past did not result in catastrophic consequences, suggesting that concerns about warming may be overstated. The primary environmental issue is not warming itself but the pollution, CO₂ emissions, and ecological damage from mining copper, rare earth elements, and lithium for renewable energy technologies. These impacts from wind and solar initiatives often outweigh the environmental benefits they are intended to provide, driven by politically motivated narratives that promote collectivist policies.
Geological evidence reveals that CO₂ levels ranging from 2 to 17 times higher than today’s 420 ppm did not lead to the dire consequences predicted by some climate models:
Compared to these periods, today’s 1.2°C warming and 420 ppm CO₂ are modest. Even at CO₂ levels of 1,000–2,000 ppm during the PETM, the ocean did not become acidic (pH < 7) across its depths. The ocean’s carbonate buffering system, coupled with long-term silicate weathering, maintained its alkalinity throughout its volume, supporting marine life such as corals and mollusks. Modern concerns about “ocean acidification” often exaggerate the threat by focusing on surface waters, while deeper waters—comprising most of the ocean’s volume—show greater stability, as they did historically at far higher CO₂ levels.
During the Eocene-Oligocene boundary (34 MYA), Earth cooled by approximately 3–5°C, forming Antarctic ice sheets, despite CO₂ levels of 1,000 ppm—over twice today’s concentration. This cooling was driven by natural processes unrelated to CO₂:
This transition demonstrates that natural climate drivers can outweigh CO₂’s influence, consistent with observations of solar and ocean cycles contributing to 20th-century warming alongside CO₂.
The closure of the Isthmus of Panama approximately 2.8 million years ago altered global ocean circulation:
Concerns about modern warming disrupting this Atlantic current system (e.g., causing European cooling or ecosystem shifts) are noted, but a 15% weakening since 1950 remains within natural variability. Historical circulation changes led to cooling, not catastrophic warming, suggesting that extreme mitigation measures may be unwarranted.
Global warming since the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1300–1850) reflects a combination of natural influences and CO₂ contributions. The LIA, marked by expanded Arctic sea ice (5–6 million km²), was an anomaly compared to the warmer Medieval Warm Period (900–1300), when ice extent was lower (3–4 million km²). The 1815 Tambora eruption further cooled the climate, but warming resumed as natural variability, including solar activity and ocean circulation, took effect. A 1923 report in the Chicago Daily Tribune noted Arctic warming, with Spitzbergen free of ice and Greenland’s permanent ice fields retreating 2,500 miles north of Norway, attributed to a stronger Gulf Stream and increased solar radiation. At the time, CO₂ levels were approximately 300 ppm, indicating that this warming predates significant anthropogenic CO₂ increases.
The closure of the Isthmus of Panama 2.8 million years ago established modern ocean circulation patterns, strengthening the Atlantic ocean current system that transports warm water northward, delivering a massive flow of heat—equivalent to millions of cubic meters of water per second—and warming the Arctic by 5–7°C over millennia. These long-established patterns, combined with the ocean’s thermal inertia (a delayed response spanning trillions of tons of seawater over roughly 50 years), contribute to today’s Arctic warming of 2–3°C. This warming is further amplified by CO₂ (adding 1.2°C globally) and feedbacks like albedo (contributing 1–2°C). Sea ice loss reduces albedo, as ice reflects more sunlight than open water, leading to greater solar absorption, further warming, and accelerated ice melt—a feedback loop causing the Arctic to warm at two to three times the global rate. This creates more open water, enhancing light availability for phytoplankton, which use CO₂ for photosynthesis. While higher CO₂ levels can boost phytoplankton growth, supporting more zooplankton, fish, seals, and whales, the loss of sea ice algae—a critical early-season food source—disrupts the food web, as these algae account for a significant portion of Arctic primary production.
Modern ocean pH, measured at approximately 8.06, is often cited as evidence of “ocean acidification” due to a decline from an estimated 8.12 since the 1980s—a change of 0.06 units. However, these measurements are primarily taken from surface waters (0–20 meters), where such a decline is expected due to direct absorption of atmospheric CO₂. Deeper waters, which constitute ~75% of the ocean’s volume, show less change or even a reversal; for instance, at 200 meters, pH is ~8.1–8.2, and below 1,000 meters, it stabilizes at ~7.8–7.9, influenced more by long-term processes like organic matter decomposition than recent CO₂ increases. This surface bias, combined with the lack of precise pre-1990 pH data (with pre-industrial estimates of 8.2 relying on uncertain proxies), suggests that the 0.06-unit surface change may fall within natural variability. Ocean pH varies regionally (7.6–8.3) and temporally (0.05–0.15 units annually) due to upwelling, biological activity, and temperature, and the average pH change across the entire ocean volume is likely much smaller than surface trends suggest. Historical whale fossils from 5–10 MYA indicate an ice-free Northwest Passage during a warmer climate, with temperatures 5–10°C above today’s, allowing bowhead whale populations to intermingle without global catastrophe, as detailed in Whale Fossils Reveal a Past Ice-Free Northwest Passage.
Polar bear populations, estimated at 5,000–10,000 in the 1950s, have grown to 22,000–31,000 today due to conservation efforts, such as regulated hunting since the 1970s. While some subpopulations benefit from increased food availability due to phytoplankton blooms, long-term sea ice loss threatens their hunting habitat, with projections of significant declines by mid-century if trends continue. Current Arctic ice extent (4.5 million km²) aligns with pre-LIA levels, suggesting a return to historical norms rather than an unprecedented crisis. Arctic sea ice has declined, as evidenced by data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (1990–2025):
| Year | Maximum Extent (million km²) | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 15.62 | March 7 |
| 1995 | 15.38 | March 15 |
| 2000 | 15.36 | March 18 |
| 2005 | 14.95 | March 12 |
| 2010 | 15.25 | March 31 |
| 2015 | 14.54 | February 25 |
| 2020 | 15.05 | March 5 |
| 2025 | 14.33 | March 22 |
Arctic ice extent decreased from 15.62 million km² in 1990 to 14.33 million km² in 2025, a reduction of 1.29 million km². While significant, this loss is less severe than conditions during the Eocene, when no ice existed at 1,000 ppm CO₂, yet life prospered. Historical warming trends, as noted in 1923, and the return to pre-LIA ice levels indicate that the current melt is part of a long-term natural cycle, amplified but not solely driven by CO₂. Emphasis should be placed on managing impacts rather than alarmist narratives.
While CO₂ contributes to warming, the environmental consequences of renewable energy production are more severe:
These renewable energy technologies often cause greater environmental harm than the warming they aim to mitigate, with economic policies like cap-and-trade disproportionately affecting lower-income communities. Prioritizing pollution reduction and sustainable mining practices is critical.
Some climate proposals advocate collectivist frameworks:
Such approaches risk economic hardship, particularly for lower-income groups, while diverting attention from practical solutions like reducing mining pollution. Historical examples, such as Sri Lanka’s organic farming policy, illustrate the pitfalls of ideologically driven environmental strategies.
Geological records demonstrate that CO₂ levels of 1,000–7,000 ppm did not cause catastrophic outcomes; life thrived. The Eocene-Oligocene transition cooled Earth at 1,000 ppm due to ocean circulation changes, and the Isthmus of Panama’s closure at 300–400 ppm initiated ice ages without disaster. Today’s 1.2°C warming and 420 ppm CO₂, influenced partly by natural factors like solar and ocean cycles, are manageable. The pressing environmental crisis lies in pollution, CO₂ emissions, and ecological damage from renewable energy mining, which outweigh the impacts of warming. Politically driven policies risk exacerbating economic inequality while neglecting these priorities. Efforts should focus on reducing pollution and fostering sustainable practices to address tangible environmental challenges.
Acknowledgment: I’d like to thank Grok, an AI by xAI, for helping me draft and refine this article. The final edits and perspective are my own.
